New Delhi: The global economy is at risk of disruption from a range of risks including economic actions, political changes, some brought on by AI, as well as three geopolitical conflicts, the Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU) said in its Risk Outlook 2024. To be sure, while the EIU forecasts “stable… unspectacular, global growth to continue into 2024.” This is expected to be brought about by the climbdown in economic uncertainty and leading central banks to gradually lowering policy rates going into the second half of 2024, according to the EIU. Also read: Wholesale inflation remains in negative category in October 2023; courtesy fall in prices of products What are the 10 risks to global economy in 2024? The EIU forecasts the following 10 potential risks to the global economy in 2024: High interest rates leading to recession The EIU forecasts that inflation may rear its head again in 2024 led by a resurgence in global demand leading to a surge in commodity prices, and shortages in supply. This may prompt central banks to tighten key rates further, bringing about a recession. Global trade war arising out of green subsidies A global trade war may erupt in the wake of rising global green subsidies. With China being in possession of several green technologies, the West may embargo the country’s products, prompting a round of retaliation, hurting the transition to green fuels in the process, and delaying timelines to achieve net zero emissions. Increase Chinese state controls The Chinese Communist Party may be forced to bring in state controls, while cutting their backing of the market economy leading to a decline in domestic productivity and hurting global economic prospects, according to the EIU. Also read: India’s jobs story on course as self-employment rises, says SBI research | Know more Disruption of global supply chains by climate change Climate change may hurt global supply chains punctuated by severe droughts and heatwaves. Grain exports may be hampered owing to thee instances combined with the Russia-Ukraine War. Shortages may in turn drive up inflation. This scenario poses far-reaching risks such as migration, political conflicts and potential wars. Global productivity declines owing to industrial action Industries may be paralysed owing to rising discontent among workers prompted b y the state of the economy, rising inflation, elevated commodity prices, and moderate wage rise. Policy changes owing to a change in US administration A change in the White House may trigger abrupt policy shifts affecting the green transition agenda, existing alliances, and even boost Russia’s prospects in the war against Ukraine if a Republican comes to power in the US. “This would probably upset some US allies, such as the EU, the UK, Australia and Japan, and a general rise in volatility in US international policymaking could erode confidence in the country’s ability to set long-term policies,” according to the EIU. Also read: Indians beat British to become largest investors in Dubai real estate | Details AI inteference in polls As poll season nears in major countries, the use of artifical intelligence to fuel polarising narratives may not bode well for the process of adult franchise, leading to a shift in political results. These include the US, the UK, India and Taiwan. Escalation of Russia-Ukraine War into a global conflict Apart from military confrontation, the hostilities may be played out in cyber warfare, prviding anonymity to potentially destructive action, according to the EIU. However, this may lead to a coming together of like-minded allies on both sides. Escalation of conflict coinciding with the cementing of alliances may not bode well for the world, if the possibility of nuclear warfare is thrown into the mix. Israel-Hamas War may escalate into a regional conflict With the participation of more stakeholders such as Lebanon’s Hezbollah and Iran, Israel may be prompted to expand the scope of its response. The casualty of this escalation may be witnessed in oil price volatility, yet again posing a problem for global prices. China annexes Taiwan With China already conducting military drills near Taiwan, the upcoming contentious elections in January will be closely watched across the world. If Taiwan declares independence, China may swoop in its troops affecting the world’s semiconductor supplies. This may draw in global powers such as the US, Australia, Spoutn Korea and Japan, apart from the EU to impose trade restrictions upon China. This may in turn prompt China to block the exports of crucial raw materials including rare earths to the West.

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