As the global economy adjusts to persistent economic and geopolitical pressures and disruptions, the familiar routes that defined the world trade map are being redrawn and regional trade lanes are playing a greater role in world trade. The changing trade picture shows that overall global trade is growing at a slower rate than the world economy, a fundamental shift away from the trend of trade-led globalism that the world enjoyed in most of the years since the end of the Cold War. World trade in goods is forecast to grow at 2.8% per year, on average, through 2032, compared with an estimated 3.1% growth rate for global GDP in the same period, according to a new analysis by Boston Consulting Group (BCG). The emergence and growing prominence of regional trade corridors is having a dampening effect on traditionally deep and fast-growing trade lanes such as China-US and China-EU. “Global trade is shifting and the once-familiar map is being redrawn,” said Nikolaus Lang, managing director and senior partner, global leader of BCG’s Global Advantage practice, and a coauthor of the report. “As supply chains are rebalanced and neighboring countries solidify their regional trade relationships, we expect to see lasting changes in flows of goods around the world.” The research highlights five emerging global trade dynamics that will characterize the world in the coming decade: “Unit economics is one of the leading contributors to these shifts, but geopolitics are also a clear catalyst,” said Marc Gilbert, a managing director and senior partner at BCG and a coauthor of the report. “In a year with many crucial global elections ahead and nearly half of the world’s population voting, we expect to see a continued industrial policy focus on national economic security, job creation, and green energy. One consequence will be the reinforcing of regional trade groupings, especially in North America, the European Union, and ASEAN.” China is today the world’s leading exporter of manufactured goods, but is slipping in relative cost-competitiveness and has a slowing domestic economy. As non-Chinese firms re-evaluate their supply chain as a consequence, trade that stops flowing between China and the West will often move elsewhere. Notable beneficiaries of reduced concentration in China will be the ASEAN countries and India as many companies move manufacturing to these economies, both to reduce global supply chain risks and to access new markets. As a result, trade between ASEAN and China will grow an impressive $616 billion in the coming decade, and trade between ASEAN and both the US and Japan will also increase, by more than $200 billion. “This is a not a blip. These changes in trade patterns are reshaping the global economy. Companies need to be thoughtful and decisive, or risk being caught out by fast-moving factors outside of their control,” said Michael McAdoo, BCG partner and director for global trade and investment and a coauthor of the report. “Those who are ahead of the curve are already investing to strengthen supply chain resilience, responding to volatility, and building up the right risk and cybersecurity capabilities.” Source: Boston Consulting Group

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